The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has disclosed that World oil demand growth in 2021 stands at 5.7 million barrels per day, adding that the figure reflects slower than anticipated demand from China and India in third quarter of 2021 (3Q21).
The organization noted that global oil demand was estimated to reach 96.4 mb/d in 2021 while world total demand in 2022 was estimated to reach 100.6 mb/d, around 0.56 mb/d above 2019 levels.
OPEC Secretary General, Mohammad Barkindo, said that the non-OPEC liquids supply was expected to grow by 0.7 mb/d in 2021, to average 63.6 mb/d. The main growth drivers of 2021 are Canada, Russia, China, Norway, Brazil and Guyana.
Speaking during the 182nd OPEC video conference, Barkindo said that the forecast for non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is 3.0 mb/d, to average 66.7 mb/d. Russia and the U.S. contribute increments of 1.0 mb/d and 0.9 mb/d, respectively.
“Turning to stocks, Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) commercial stocks stand at 2,773 mb, which is 174 mb below the 2015-2019 average with crude accounting for 148 mb and products 26 mb of this,” he said.
In terms of days of forward cover, he disclosed that OECD commercial stocks in October stood at 61.6 days, 0.7 days lower than the average of 2015-2019.
Moreover, he underscored the need to consider the market implications of last week’s announcement of the possible coordinated release of 70 million barrels of oil from the strategic reserves of several consuming countries.
He noted that the implications of such uncertainties for excess supply in first to second quarter of 2022 (1Q-2Q2022) should be carefully monitored.
He listed future of monetary policies, inflationary pressures, possible reintroduction of lockdowns, vaccine uptake rates, vaccine-resistance of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 and supply-chain bottlenecks as some of the uncertainties clouding the picture.
According to him, these uncertainties and implications on the global oil demand and supply balance are analysed in a scenario analysis as reflected in the Economic Commission Board (ECB) report.
In an overview of market developments, as discussed at the 136th Meeting of the ECB, he recalled that over 55 per cent of the global population has received at least one vaccine against the coronavirus.
According to official statistics, over 262 million people have been sickened and there have been over 5.2 million fatalities. The global economic growth forecasts for both 2021 and 2022 stand at 5.6 per cent and 4.2 per cent, respectively.
According to him, while a multitude of challenges to the economic recovery remain, the world economy continues improving, albeit at disparate speeds among many regions.
He said that the emergence of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 and the reintroduction of lockdowns in many regions of the world constitute the main public-health related uncertainties.