The Federal Government has pushed back against growing criticism of President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms, insisting that the administration never promised instant prosperity and warning against what it described as “theatrical arithmetic” dominating public debate on Nigeria’s finances.
It said much of the outrage around so-called “missing trillions” under the Tinubu administration is built on a misunderstanding—and in some cases, deliberate distortion—of basic public finance principles.
The Director-General of the Budget Office of the Federation, Tanimu Yakubu, made the clarification through a statement released on Sunday, addressing widespread claims circulating on social media and public forums, including claims by a non-governmental organisations, SERAP, on power funds and others.
According to the him, a striking feature of the current economic conversation is the enthusiasm with which large figures are publicised, often without regard for how they are derived. Tax collections are added to oil receipts, oil receipts are counted again under customs or alleged “subsidy savings,” while borrowing is treated as income.
The resulting totals, Yakubu said, were often used to allege incompetence and corruption, saying “This is not economic analysis; it is an arithmetic illusion”.
He explained that most viral critiques of what has been termed “Tinubunomics” fail to distinguish between revenue, cash and financing, as well as between federation-wide collections and the actual resources available to the Federal Government.
These distinctions, Yakubu stressed, are not technical footnotes but the very foundation of public finance.
Revenue, he noted, is not the same as cash available for spending by the Federal Government. Borrowing is not income but financing that creates future repayment obligations. Likewise, federation revenues do not belong solely to the Federal Government, as they are shared among the federal, state and local governments in line with constitutional provisions.
“Once these distinctions are ignored, any number—no matter how dramatic—can be manufactured,” the budget office director said.
He described a familiar pattern in public discourse: gross tax collections are cited, oil revenues are added without clarifying whether they are gross or net, customs receipts are layered on—sometimes already embedded in other figures—while borrowing is added as though it were free money. Finally, “subsidy savings” are introduced as if the removal of fuel subsidy instantly produced a stockpile of idle cash.
“The outcome is a massive headline figure—₦150 trillion, ₦170 trillion or ₦180 trillion—followed by the question: where did the money go?” the statement said, adding that much of the money “never existed in the form being implied.”
On fuel subsidy reforms, Yakubu stressed that ending subsidy did not magically create discretionary cash. Rather, it closed long-standing fiscal leaks that previously showed up as arrears, opaque netting and quasi-fiscal obligations. Any fiscal benefit, it said, would emerge gradually through reduced deficit pressure, improved budgeting discipline and targeted interventions, not through sudden windfalls.
Addressing claims surrounding rising debt figures, Yakubu noted that much of the increase in naira-denominated debt reflects exchange rate revaluation of existing external loans rather than fresh borrowing. When the naira weakens, the naira value of dollar-denominated debt rises automatically—an accounting effect often misrepresented as new debt accumulation.
Equally misleading, he said, is the practice of presenting federation-wide revenues as if they were federal spending resources.
“Federal budget reality is determined by FGN retained revenue plus deficit financing, not by gross federation inflows aggregated for political effect,” e added.
Reiterating the administration’s stance, the director said President Tinubu administration never promised instant abundance. Instead, his economic agenda represents a macro-fiscal reset undertaken within tight constraints, including inherited debt service obligations, foreign exchange reforms, security spending, legacy arrears and constitutional responsibilities.
“The logic of Tinubunomics is structural—restoring price signals, strengthening revenue administration, rebuilding credibility, and repricing the public balance sheet while protecting the most vulnerable,” the statement said.
Meanwhile, he warned that treating national finances like a household ledger will always produce outrage, but not necessarily truth. Genuine accountability, it argued, begins with audit logic rather than viral narratives.
Yakubu urged critics and the public to focus on clear metrics: federal retained revenue, the separation of revenue from financing, expenditure patterns across debt service, personnel, capital projects and transfers, and, ultimately, measurable outcomes such as roads built, power delivered, rail extended, and schools and clinics rehabilitated.
“Anything else is not scrutiny; it is theatre,” the statement concluded, adding that “no amount of theatrical arithmetic can substitute for fiscal discipline.”
